ANALISIS PERAMALAN INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN (IHK) DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE TREND ANALYSIS, DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (DES), DAN SARIMA

Nugraheni, Hanis Isyak (2024) ANALISIS PERAMALAN INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN (IHK) DAERAH ISTIMEWA YOGYAKARTA DENGAN METODE TREND ANALYSIS, DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (DES), DAN SARIMA. Other thesis, UPN Veteran Yogyakarta.

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Abstract

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INTISARI
Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) adalah indeks yang didalamnya berisi rata-rata
perubahan harga dari kumpulan barang dan jasa yang dikonsumsi rumah tangga dalam
periode tertentu. Perubahan IHK berdampak signifikan pada sektor ekonomi secara
keseluruhan. Fluktuasi IHK dapat dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor seperti fluktuasi
ekonomi yang dapat diamati dalam kehidupan sehari-hari. Mengingat dampak yang
ditimbulkan oleh perubahan fluktuasi IHK tergolong besar, perlu dilakukan forecasting
atau peramalan nilai IHK dimasa depan. Penelitian ini akan membandingkan tiga
metode yaitu Trend Analysis, Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), dan Seasonal
ARIMA untuk mengetahui metode mana yang paling cocok dalam peramalan IHK
Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta tahun 2024. Peramalan dilakukan berdasarkan data
historis IHK Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta tahun periode 2020-2023 yang merupakan
data time series bulanan. Jumlah data yang digunakan sebanyak 36 sampel data dan
diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Pengolahan
data dilakukan dengan bantuan aplikasi analisis statistik Minitab dan Eviews.
Penelitian deskriptif kuantitatif ini menyatakan metode terbaik untuk melakukan
peramalan adalah metode DES dengan MAPE sebesar 0,233216%.
Kata Kunci: IHK, Peramalan, Trend Analysis, Double Exponential Smoothing
(DES), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA)
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ABSTRACT
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index which contains the average price
change of a collection of goods and services consumed by households in a certain
period. Changes in the CPI have a significant impact on the economic sector as a
whole. CPI fluctuations can be influenced by various factors such as economic
fluctuations that can be observed in daily life. Considering that the impact caused by
changes in CPI fluctuations is quite large, it is necessary to carry out forecasting or
forecasting the CPI value in the future. This research will compare three methods,
Trend Analysis, Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), and Seasonal ARIMA to find
out which method is most suitable for forecasting the CPI for Special Region
Yogyakarta for 2024. Forecasting is carried out based on historical CPI data for
Special Region Yogyakarta for the period 2020-2023 which is monthly time series data.
The amount of data used was 36 data and was obtained from Badan Pusat Statistik
(BPS) Special Region Yogyakarta. Data processing was carried out with the help of
the Minitab and Eviews, a statistical analysis applications. This quantitative
descriptive research states that the best method for forecasting is the DES method with
a MAPE of 0,233216%.
Keywords: CPI, Forecasting, Trend Analysis, Double Exponential Smoothing
(DES), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA)

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	CPI, Forecasting, Trend Analysis, Double Exponential Smoothing (DES), Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions:	Faculty of Law, Arts and Social Sciences > School of Management
Depositing User:	Eko Yuli
Date Deposited:	07 Aug 2024 02:21
Last Modified:	07 Aug 2024 02:21
URI:	http://eprints.upnyk.ac.id/id/eprint/40625

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