Suharsih, Sri (2013) FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN PENCAPAIAN SUSTAINABILITAS FISKAL INDONESIA. KINERJA, 17 (1). pp. 28-44.
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Abstract
This research aims to measure the fiscal risks and contingent liabilities caused by increasing world oil prices in terms of fiscal sustainability. Analysis was performed by using the Balance Sheet Approach (BSA) and the mean variance analysis to calculate the fiscal risk. Furthermore, in relation to fiscal sustainability it was examined whether the fiscal risks that occur was through structural changes or not during the years 1977-2008 with the fluctuating oil price conditions. It was analyzed by using stationary test application by inserting a structural break elements, developed by Zivot Andrews (ZA tesi).
The results show that increases in oil prices caused the fiscal risk in Indonesia, this can be seen from the calculation of networth with BSA and the mean variance analysis showed negative results, especially when Indonesia became a net oil importing country and increase oil price was very high approaching U.S. $ 100 / barrel. ZA test results showed that there had been structural changes in risk variables, such conditions OCCur when the world oil price has increased to nearly 100 U.S. dollars / barrel. This shows that the increase in oil prices could disrupt the achievement of fiscal sustainability.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Fiscal Risk, Zivot Andrews (ZA) test, Balance Sheet Approach (BSA) |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Law, Arts and Social Sciences > School of Management |
| Depositing User: | Dr. SE MSi KHOIRUL HIKMAH |
| Date Deposited: | 28 Apr 2023 02:27 |
| Last Modified: | 28 Apr 2023 02:27 |
| URI: | http://eprints.upnyk.ac.id/id/eprint/34653 |
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