Gregorio Ramos, Agostinho (2013) ANALISIS FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY TIMOR-LESTE TAHUN 2030. Masters thesis, UPN ''VETERAN'' YOGYAKARTA.
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Abstract
Timor-Leste secara geografis berada di antara dua benua Asia dan Australia dan dua negera yaitu Indonesia dan Australia. Sumber penerimaan utama Timor-Leste saat ini adalah penerimaan yang berasal dari sumber daya alam minyak dan gas, sumber pendapatan ini berasal dari wilayah Joint petroleum Development area (JPD) dimana tentang pengeksplorasian minyak bersama termasuk pembagian pendapatan yaitu Pemerintah Timor-Leste 90% dan pemerintah Australia 10%. Pelaksanaan Pembangunan Timor-Leste tahun 2002-2012 berlangsung, namun, penerimaan dalam negeri masih rendah dan perkembangan perekonomian lamban, hasil analisis tentang kontribusi penerimaan terhadap pengeluaran anggaran negara mengambarkan bahwa anggaran Negara masih sangat dominan dari sumber sektor penerimaan pendapatan minyak dan gas. Pemerintah Timor-Leste telah menetapkan strategi jangka pendek, jangka menengah dan jangka panjang yaitu 2015, 2020 dan 2030 dengan harapan besar bahwa pada tahun 2030 Timor-Leste telah mencapai pendapatan menengah ke atas. Analisis Fiscal Sustainability sangat penting agar dapat memberi kontribusi kepada para pembuat kebijakan Fiskal demi ketahanan perekonomian nasional keadaan berlanjutan. Harapan besar pemerintah dapat menetapkan langkah-langkah penyusunan perekonomian dalam negeri non- minyak dan gas sehingga pada tahun 2030 penerimaan dalam negeri dapat mengantikan penerimaan minyak gas dengan tujuan perekonomian Timor-Leste tetap berkelanjutan dari segi fiskal maupun sektor riil. struktur anggaran Timor-Leste adalah penerimaan dikurangi pengeluaran sama dengan surplus /defisit dan selama periode penelitian defisit anggaran selalu terjadi setiap tahun. Untuk pembiayaan defisit berasal dari a) transfer petroleum fund dengan hasil kalkulasi estimate sustainable Income (ESI) dan Exceed drawls from petroleum Fund, b) Drawdown from Cash Reserves, c) Borrowing (debt). Metode analisis yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah metode trend linear untuk meramalkan bagaimana fiscal sustainability Timor-Leste 2030 mendatang. Memastikan terjadi fiscal sustainable atau tidak maka yang terbaik adalah perbandingan rasio defisit anggaran, ESI dan borrowing (debt) terhadap pertumbuhan GDP (GDP growth, hasil analisis yang diperoleh adalah selama periode penelitian fiscal tidak sustainable, artinya baik itu rasio defisit anggaran, rasio ESI dan Rasio Borrowing (debt) rata-rata lebih besar dibanding Pertumbuhan GDP (GDP growth). Akhir dengan kesimpulan bahwa selama periode 2030 mendatang Timor-Leste pada kondisi unsustainable fiscal. Key Words; Fiscal Sustainability, Defisit Anggaran, Petroleum Fund, Crude Oil, utang, GDP Timor-Leste is geographically located between the two continents of Asia and Australia and two countries of Indonesia and Australia. The main source of revenue of Timor-Leste is the acceptance that comes from the natural resources of oil and gas, the source of income is derived from the Joint Petroleum Development Area (JPD) where about exploring and production together, including sharing of oil revenues that the Government of Timor-Leste's 90% and the government Australia 10%. Implementation of the Development of Timor-Leste in 2002-2012 took place, however, domestic revenues are low and slow economic growth, the results of an analysis of the contribution of acceptance of a portrait of the state budget expenditures that the state budget is still very dominant from sectors of the oil and gas revenues. The Government of Timor-Leste has established strategic short, medium and long term, namely 2015, 2020 and 2030 with high hopes that by 2030 Timor-Leste has achieved middle to upper income. Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability is very important to be able to contribute to the policy makers for the resilience of the national economy in condition Fiscal continue. Hope the government can set the steps in the preparation of the country's economy of non-oil and gas revenues that in 2030 domestic gas can replace oil revenues with the goal of Timor-Leste's economy is sustainable in terms of fiscal and real sector. Timor-Leste's budget structure is revenue minus expenses equal to the surplus / deficit and the budget deficit over the study period always deficit every year. To finance the deficit comes from a) the transfer of the petroleum fund to yield from calculation estimate sustainable Income (ESI) and Exceed drawls from petroleum Fund, b) Drawdown from Cash Reserves, c) borrowing (debt). The method of analysis used in this study is the trend linear method to predict how the fiscal sustainability of Timor-Leste 2030. Ensuring sustainable fiscal happening or not, best to is budget deficit ratio, ESI and borrowing (debt) ratio to GDP growth (GDP growth), the results of the analysis are obtained during the study period unsustainable fiscal, meaning either that the ratio of the budget deficit, the ratio of ESI and Borrowing Ratio (debt) on average larger than GDP growth (GDP growth). End with the conclusion that during the period 2030 to the Timor-Leste unsustainable fiscal condition Key Words; Fiscal Sustainability, Budget Deficit, Petroleum Fund, Crude Oil, Debt, GDP
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
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| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HG Finance |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Law, Arts and Social Sciences > School of Social Sciences |
| Depositing User: | Erny Azyanti |
| Date Deposited: | 10 Nov 2016 08:12 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Nov 2016 08:12 |
| URI: | http://eprints.upnyk.ac.id/id/eprint/8660 |
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