Suharsih, Sri and Winarti, Asih Sri and Hikmah, Khoirul (2013) �RISIKO FISKAL FLUKTUASI HARGA MINYAK DUNIA DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI. In: Proceeding Doctoral Colloquium and Conference “Ethically Sustainable Business Practice and Green Economy, 27-28 November 2013, Yogyakarta.

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1. 1. Risiko Fiskal Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Dunia dan Faktor-Faktor yang Nempengaruh 04-09-2023 10.04.pdf

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This research analyzed fiscal risks as an impact of the increase in world oil prices. This research was done because to date the fiscal risk analysis is not much enthused by economic analysts and government, while fiscal risks including contingent liabilities have an important role in achieving fiscal sustainability of a country. The increase in oil prices gave a tremendous impact for the implementation of fiscal policies in Indonesia. Volatility of oil prices will adversely or r isk to the stote budget, particulariy after Indonesia became a net oil importing country since 2004. Empirically, the increase of oil price would directly affect revenue and expenditure headings of State Budget (APBN), mainly headings of oil and gas revenues and oil and gas tax in r EVSNEG, side, while in the expenditure side will affect the provision of fuel subsidies, electricity subsidies, and the provision of Sharing Fund to the oil producing regions (DBH Migas). The high oil price and status of Indonesia as a net oil importing country are feared to encourage fiscal risks and contingent liabilities in the implementation of the State Budget. Therefore it is important to conduct an analysis of fiscal risks faced by the government of Indonesia and see the response of world oil price increase on its fiscal risk in relation to the achievement of fiscal sustainability in Indonesia.

This research aims to measure the fiscal risks and contingent liabilities caused by increasing world oil prices in terms of fiscal sustainability. Analysis was performed by using the Balance Sheet Approach (BSA) and the mean variance analysis to calculate the fiscal risk. Furthermore, in relation to fiscal sustainability it was examined whether the fiscal risks that occur was through structural changes or not during the years 1977-2012 with the fluctuating oil price conditions. It was analyzed by using stationary test application by inserting a structural break elements, developed by Zivot Andrews (ZA test). Further this research to estimates the effect of oil prices and sme other macroeconomic variables to fiscal risk used Error Correction Model- Engle Granger (ECM-EG).The results show that increases in oil Prices caused the fiscal risk in Indonesia, this can be seen from the calculation of networth with BSA and the mean variance
analysis showed negative results, especially when Indonesia became a net oil importing Country and increase oil price was very high approaching U.S. $ 100 / barrel. ZA test results showed that there had been structural changes in risk variables, such conditions Occur when the world oil
price hos increased to nearly 100 U.S. dollars / barrel. This shows that the increase in oil prices could disrupt the achievement of fiscal sustainability. The result of ECM-EG Shows that world oil prices and fuel consumption influences positive significant in the Short run to fiscal risk in

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Fiscal Risk, Zivot Andrews (ZA) test, Balance Sheet Approach (BSA), Error Correction Model-Engle Granger (ECM-EG)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Divisions: Faculty of Law, Arts and Social Sciences > School of Management
Depositing User: Dr. SE MSi KHOIRUL HIKMAH
Date Deposited: 28 Apr 2023 02:08
Last Modified: 28 Apr 2023 02:10
URI: http://eprints.upnyk.ac.id/id/eprint/34566

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