Uncertainty Analysis of Reservoir Static Modelling: A Case Study of KMJ Oil Field

Kristanto, Dedy and Hariyadi, Hariyadi and Saputra, Emanuel Jiwandono (2023) Uncertainty Analysis of Reservoir Static Modelling: A Case Study of KMJ Oil Field. International Journal of Oil, Gas and Coal Engineering, 11 (1). pp. 9-16. ISSN 2376-7669

Text 10- IJOGCE January 2023_Paper_OGCE 10.11648.j.ogce.20231101.12_Kristanto, D. et.al.pdf Download (3MB)

Abstract

This case study explains the uncertainty of Original Oil in Place (OOIP) calculations in reservoir static modeling
of KMJ Oil Field. This field consists of 4 (four) wells in an area of ± 600 acres with high heterogeneity, so in building a 3D
Model, it is necessary to analyze the sensitivity and uncertainty of geological concepts, calculations of petrophysical properties,
and fluid contact. The OOIP calculation uses a probabilistic method and determines reserves related to field development. The
uncertainty analysis study begins by identifying the parameters with the most significant influence (Sensitivity Analysis) in
calculating OOIP in the static reservoir model. To determine the ranking of reservoir uncertainty parameters, several geological,
geophysical, and petrophysical factors in building a static model must be tested according to the method used in each
parameter. The OOIP calculation in the static model is calculated into three scenario categories, namely low estimate (P10),
base estimate (P50), and high estimate (P90). The combination of determining facies (shale volume) porosity, fluid contact, and
the cut-off is a variable/parameter that is very influential in volumetric multi-scenario calculations (probabilistic method) in the
KMJ Oil Field. The results of the uncertainty analysis of the KMJ Oil Field have a low OOIP estimate (P10) of 10.86 MMSTB,
a base estimate (P50) of 11.49 MMSTB, and a high estimate (P90) of 12.01 MMSTB. Furthermore, the static model used for
reservoir simulation (dynamic model) in the KMJ Oil Field is the base estimate model (P50) of 11.49 MMSTB.
Keywords: Uncertainty Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Original Oil in Place, Low Estimate (P10), Base Estimate (P50),
High Estimate (P90)

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Uncertainty Analysis, Sensitivity Analysis, Original Oil in Place, Low Estimate (P10), Base Estimate (P50), High Estimate (P90)
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics > School of Engineering Sciences
Depositing User:	Dr.Ir, MT Dedy Kristanto
Date Deposited:	31 Mar 2023 14:13
Last Modified:	31 Mar 2023 14:13
URI:	http://eprints.upnyk.ac.id/id/eprint/33103

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