Hidayatulah, Himawan and Parasian, Silitonga (2020) COMPARISON OF FORECASTING ACCURACY RATE OF EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD ON ADMISSION OF NEW STUDENTS. Journal of Critical Review, 7 (2). pp. 268-274. ISSN 2394-5125
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Abstract
Forecasting is a tool or technique used to predict or predict a value in the future by paying attention to relevant data or information, both past data or information as well as current data or information. There are several forecasting methods, one of which is the exponential smoothing method. In this study a comparison of forecasting accuracy to new student admission data in a study program at a university using the single exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing and triple exponential smoothing methods. The best forecasting using the single exponential smoothing method is obtained when the parameter value α = 0.9 with the mean percentage error (MPE) = 0.0239, while the best forecasting using the double exponential smoothing method is obtained when the parameter value α = 0.8 and β = 1, with an MPE value of 0.1172. The best forecasting using the triple exponential smoothing method is obtained when the values of α = 0.6 and β = 0.9, with an MPE value of 0.0161. Based on the forecasting results of the three methods, it was concluded that the best forecasting obtained in this study was to use the triple exponential smoothing method with an MPE value of 0.0161.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Exponential Smoothing, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Triple Exponential Smoothing,Mean Percentage Error (MPE) |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics > School of Electronics and Computer Science |
| Depositing User: | ST,MM,MEng HIDAYATULAH HIMAWAN |
| Date Deposited: | 24 Jul 2020 10:30 |
| Last Modified: | 24 Jul 2020 10:33 |
| URI: | http://eprints.upnyk.ac.id/id/eprint/23086 |
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